Where Does Our Data Come From?
The Female Delusion Calculator is built upon rigorous statistical data from two of the most authoritative sources for demographic and health information in the United States. We have carefully selected these data sources to ensure the highest level of accuracy and reliability in our calculations.
Income and Marital Status Data
Our income and marital status information is derived from the 2023 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) of the Current Population Survey (CPS), conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. This comprehensive survey is one of the most trusted sources for demographic and economic data in the United States, providing detailed insights into the American population's social and economic characteristics.
The ASEC survey includes detailed information about household income, employment status, marital status, and various demographic characteristics. This data is collected annually and represents one of the most current and comprehensive pictures of American society available.
Height and Body Mass Index Data
Height and body mass index information is sourced from the 2017-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), which is part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
We utilize the 2017-2018 dataset rather than more recent data due to the suspension of survey operations in March 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This dataset represents the most recent complete and reliable health and nutrition data available for the U.S. population.
Understanding the Calculator Options
Exclude Married Option
When you select the "exclude married" option, you are filtering the data to focus only on unmarried men. The ASEC survey categorizes marital status into seven distinct categories:
- Married, spouse present
- Married, spouse absent
- Separated
- Divorced
- Widowed
- Never married/single
- Widowed or Divorced
By selecting "exclude married," the calculator filters out the first two categories (married with spouse present and married with spouse absent) from the sample data, focusing the results on men who are currently available for dating.
Race Categories
The ASEC survey provides an incredibly detailed breakdown of race and ethnicity, offering 28 different race options including various combinations of two or more races (for example, White-Black-American Indian combinations).
To simplify the user experience while maintaining statistical accuracy, our calculator presents four primary options:
- Any color or shade: Includes all races and combinations
- White: Non-Hispanic white individuals
- Black: Individuals identifying as Black or African American
- Asian: Individuals identifying as Asian
This simplification allows for easier navigation while still providing meaningful demographic filtering based on the most commonly referenced racial categories in demographic studies.
Exclude Obese Option
The "exclude obese" option filters out men who have a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30 or higher, which is the clinical definition of obesity according to medical standards.
In the NHANES survey, BMI is calculated using the standard formula: weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared (kg/m²). This measurement provides a standardized way to assess body composition across the population.
The BMI categories used are:
- Underweight: BMI less than 18.5
- Normal weight: BMI 18.5-24.9
- Overweight: BMI 25-29.9
- Obese: BMI 30 or higher
Methodology and Limitations
One of the most important aspects of understanding our calculator is recognizing both its strengths and limitations. We believe in complete transparency about how our calculations work and where potential inaccuracies might arise.
Data Integration Challenge
In an ideal world, we would have access to a single, comprehensive survey that includes all the variables we need: age, marital status, race, height, BMI, and personal income all in one dataset. Unfortunately, such a comprehensive survey does not exist with the level of detail and sample size we require.
The ASEC survey provides excellent data on income, employment, and marital status but lacks detailed information about height and BMI. Conversely, the NHANES survey provides comprehensive health and physical measurement data but does not include detailed personal income information.
Our Solution
To address this challenge, the Female Delusion Calculator performs two separate statistical analyses:
- An income-based search using ASEC data (filtered by age, marital status, and race)
- A physical characteristics search using NHANES data (filtered by age, marital status, race, height, and BMI)
The calculator then combines these two results into a single percentage value that represents the probability of finding a man who meets all specified criteria.
Acknowledged Limitations
While our methodology provides results that are reasonably close to reality, it is not entirely precise due to one significant limitation: it does not account for correlations between different variables.
For example, research has shown that there are correlations between height and income (taller individuals tend to earn slightly more on average), between education and income, and between various other demographic factors. By processing income and physical characteristics independently, our calculator might:
- Slightly underestimate the number of tall, high-income individuals
- Slightly overestimate the number of tall, low-income individuals
- Miss other subtle correlations between physical and economic characteristics
Confidence in Results
Despite these limitations, we believe our results provide a valuable and reasonably accurate picture of dating market realities. The methodology we use is statistically sound, and while the final numbers should be taken with appropriate context, they are not expected to be significantly off from actual demographic realities.
We encourage users to view the results as informative estimates rather than precise predictions, and to use them as one factor among many when considering relationship expectations and dating strategies.
Data Updates
We are committed to keeping our data as current as possible. As new survey data becomes available from the Census Bureau and NCHS, we will evaluate and potentially incorporate these updates to ensure our calculator reflects the most recent demographic trends.
Users should note that demographic patterns can change over time due to various social, economic, and cultural factors. We recommend checking back periodically for any updates to our data sources or methodology.